@MaccajohnI respect your view, I reached a different conclusion (that information published by Tyro is somewhat reasonable and they are being transparent). I am adding my notes below for reaching my conclusion. I read your post and it is good analysis and great to see other views.
I think the period we are discussing is for either date ending 8-Jan (which has 3 impacted days for terminal issue) OR period ending 12-Jan (which has all 4 days of terminal issue and 3 days of Brisbane lock down). Reasons why I think, Tyro is being transparent.
A. Queensland has 21% of total terminals and I took ~10% as Brisbane (I don't know the exact breakdown between Brisbane and rest of Queensland).
A.1. So the -14% impact for the period from 9th to 12th Jan would have all 3 days of Brisbane lock down impact (~10% of total transaction value).
B. Tyro's observation of 5% transaction value impact is on 7th Jan, so one would assume their observation is based on 5th & 6th Jan? if so both are week days and this is one reason to see low impact (not that Tyro gave wrong information - it probably is off-peak part of week).
B.1. Again the period from 9th Jan to 12th Jan, would have some additional impact for week end (guess).
C. Tyro did
not claim that total transaction value impact is 5%
on 13th Jan. It is just some posters (including me) noting that
on 7th, Tyro observed decline is 5%. If you see my old post (
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/50154369/single), my view is, we will see a 10% decline for the week ending 15th Jan (reason is, I expected some terminals to be fixed for the customers who lost all terminals and improving transaction value a bit).
D. Last but not the least, we don't have Sydney and Brisbane hotspots last year and trip cancellations will have thier own small impact on hospitality customers (~45% of Tyro customers are 'hospitality' customers, you will find this in last annual report, page9). These things may not matter alone but add up quickly if they happen when there are multiple other impact in the period.
because of the dates and other events, it is difficult to accurately tell the impact due to 'terminal connectivity issue'. I would be happy if they resolve their system issues quickly and support their customers (and take this as a lesson for future).
(20min delay)