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DarkLordStoaty

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22/03/21

21:28

Post #: 51958247
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Originally posted by onthepunt ↑

Ok, so I texted Scott this morning and he was kind enough to call me back just now. He doesn't read HC but he's fine with me posting my notes. Take what you want from this. There will also be a webinar/update announcement on Wednesday when the CR announcement comes out.

Cap Raise
They were hit with huge demand and will be taking oversubscriptions up to almost $8m. The money will be used for seismic and also to order long lead items such as well heads and casings which take approx. 6 months. IMO this is a clear signal to market that we will drill this year. They also needed to take the opportunity to lock in the low prices for rigs and crews which are currently still available but starting to trend up. The CR price was difficult to lock in while trying to keep it quiet. Evidence the SP rising last week as proof that this took the market by surprise.

PEPDA/PPSA
Can't say exactly when but Scott was pleasantly surprised at Winston Chitando's openness around the signing timeline. As the mining minister the agreement is sitting with him and then goes to the Attorney General which is an independent check. There is no need for the agreement to go to parliament as the independent nature of the AG assures it is constitutionally binding. Once again, Scott has ensured this is binding as it can potentially go for 30 years if we hit big. The President also needs to find time to be scheduled in for the signing ceremony even though he is not involved in the agreement. It's so big for the country that he wants to be there.

Farm in/out
Still the most likely option, however when I asked if he would consider going it alone Scott said it's not out of the question. We are now in a position of strength due to a solid SP and market cap. He is extremely conscious of dilution (as you would expect with 70m+ shares) but has to balance risk and the retained WI against dilution and the 80% ownership. I get the feeling we will still farm out but it's not as cut and dried as it was last year. I don't have any indication of timeline for the farm in.

Other stuff
We had a good general discussion about macro factors such as POO trending up and the current low point for service costs that won't remain low. It is a great time to be heading towards drilling. Scott mentioned that it hasn't been this good in O&G since around 2012.
The register remains tight. A new website and updated T20 will be coming.
Also touched on the possibility of a TO, which would be much more likely if we retained ownership of the whole resource but it's not something that is front of mind at all.

There is no guarantee with the SP on Wednesday but I think the market will be reassured, especially with the long lead items, that we are going drilling this year. I remain very confident in this company and it's board.

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As always your posts are well written,balanced, knowledgeable and too the point.
Well done and may you keep on posting on IVZ.
I'm sure all holders appreciate your input.
You have my respect.

IVZ Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
25 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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