DYOR. Comparative analysis and speculative targets are intended to provide a perspective on value and upside. They are not intended as financial advice. You should do your own careful research and make your own investment decisions.
Company has given indications via interviews of resource target in the 5 Moz to 7 Moz range.
Current share price: 16.5c for 3.3 Moz ( fair value $0.20 )
Speculative for rerate: - $0.30 to $0.42 for 5 Moz to 7 Moz
- Outside target
- $0.24 for 4 Moz
- $0.48 for 8 Moz
My expectations are for close to 5 Moz for a resource update, with up to 50% indicated.
Gold price has been hammered, so appropriate to update speculative targets, last posted in Post #:
51988139.
Using peer average, fair value for NVA's current 3.3 Moz resource is currently $0.20.
Expectations based on ranges given in interviews are a resource upgrade in the range of 5 Moz to 7 Moz. This gives a speculative price target of $0.30 to $0.42 using peer average valuation.
I'm assuming further drilling in Q2 and Q3 at RPM at Korbel will conservatively deliver another 2 Moz for a global resource 7 Moz to 9 Moz by end of December. This gives a speculative price target of $0.42 to $0.53 be end of December 2021.
View attachment 3061559NVA is up near peak of short sales, so I think with resource update in line with 5 Moz to 7 Moz this could drive a nice short squeeze to give the share price rerate a boost.
View attachment 3061609Key/anticipated catalysts:
- Resource Upgrade at Korbel - imminent - when NVA is out of trading halt.
- "Interim" Scoping Study for Korbel
- Drilling at RPM in Q2
- Maiden Resource at RPM is expected by year end
- Possible further drilling at Korbel
- Global Resource ( Korbel + RPM ) by year end
Other catalysts:
- Snow Lake IPO (NASDAQ listing expected)
- NI 43-101 Resource update at Snow Lake
- NI 43-101 Preliminary Economic Analysis for Snow Lake
- Further resource drilling
- RotorX and TNR updates
This is how a fast re-rate could play out and a target of $0.30 to $0.42 by the end of April, particularly if the resource update parallels Snow Lake News and I think news flow on RPM drilling (probably not for at least a couple of months, more on this below).
I think RPM drilling will start in 6-10 weeks time (need more time for snows to clear up on the ridge lines) and in the meantime we will have updates on Snow Lake and progress to completion of Scoping Study for Korbel.
View attachment 3061594Here's a webcam view in the general area. The airstrip they use to service Korbel is far distance over the ridge to the right of this image ( to right of this field of view ).
View attachment 3061816Here's how it normally looks in summer.
View attachment 3061846
(20min delay)