1SunTzuI highly doubt if red was to buy tnr, it would be this...

1SunTzu

I highly doubt if red was to buy tnr, it would be this year.

Presently they have there hands full logistically and financially bringing koth online.

If you have not read about koths size, plant has future capacity of 6.5mtpa. Sons of gwalia is 1.2mtpa.

So sep 2022 when they start banking cash I'd think there needs will change. .

Tnr has a major shareholder, nva, Managment, tribune and top 20 hold are tight.

This protects against a low ball buyout as a suitor would struggle to get 70% of the cap. Probably removes any urgency if red was inclined from another suitor.

Holding red, if they acquired, upside if your long term could be 16 year LOM ending up 20 year LOM or an increase in production.

So red holders do get a big benefit later.

Because red has covered capex on koth within there own mine plan, carting ore from Mt stirling to koth would be very low cost per oz.

Rms paid plus 500 per oz for spx and are trucking there ore, no plant and are making 1000 plus per oz.

If you had to build plant, cost per oz higher, so red can afford to pay more per oz.

Also depends on what tnr finds, if they get 2200m strike Mt stirling to hydra. More nw of hydra red has leases and if gold goes farther se, red is there also.

If you look at the faults, existing deposits and leases you'll get what I mean.

With that I doubt Red would want another Co in the middle of there ground.

Tnr if they got say 600k oz at Mt stirling.
At 2500per oz, 1.5b contained.
At 300 profit per oz = 180m
At 500 profit per oz = 300m

I think 100m cap for tnr is fair at a minimum, undiluted plus 10c a share. I've only factored in Mt stirling.

There is tyranuus, blue jacket, Stirling well and diorite that would add value, depending on status.

We can add 20m, the tax saved portion on Tnrs 60m accumulated losses. From an accounting point of view accumulated losses are an asset.

So at present price tnr is capped at 3m.

With the jvs, cash, tarmoola, they are capped negative value I feel.

Eventually tnr will want to produce gold, a few options, build a plant and blow out cost per oz and wait 2 years plus to pour, toll, cart to kalgoorlie or just 15km to koth.

Toll is best because build plant, tnr would need to raise 75m plus in funds, versus toll zero.

Cargill comes into play there, as it has earth moving equipment already.

What ever occurs, something does need to happen to go from explorer to producer for tnr.

Again, red may not buy, but as outlined on logistics, plant capacity, proximity, costs, etc. Its the most likely end game.