A raise at $0.02c would be a good result if indeed true, but the question is how much do we need going forward?
I think we need to raise at least $10m.
AT $0.02C this represents another 500m shares (ouch - especially for existing option holders, like myself).
I also think there will be a sweetener of some sort, maybe a 1 fo 5 issue at $0.XXc, so maybe another 100m shares for a total of 600m additional shares on issue. The strike may be low to further incentivise people to participate considering the current options are going to be a LONG way off being in the money - about $150m market cap fully diluted (off the top of my head).
The good thing is I think there are a lot of people who believe in the prospects of the company, and more importantly think the management and people on the ground (like Christine) have good credibility despite the lack of results so far.
I love the way the business communicates with shareholders, I believe Duncan and the team are passionate and sincere, and I believe they are personally invested in having success (it is not a lifestyle company).
In terms of rationalising how much I think we need, my breakdown is below.
A Year Round Project
As per my previous post, EVERY project we have has about a 4 month shut down due to weather, and these are ALL at the same time (roughly December to April).
Being "productive" for 70% of the year isn't really great when it comes to the revenues for the business.
I do appreciate that the Pogo mine is a year round operation, and we will have that potential with Pogo East, but we haven't found gold yet.
I also believe Sunshine would be heavily impacted by the weather, which Duncan said gets down to -30C, if they go with the "Fort Knox" style operation.
The same applies with the projects in Northern Australia with the wet season.
A year round project will ensure consistent revenues rather than the possibility of ebbs and flows of cash.
Do we have any more land or opportunities? Is there something / someone we could buy?
I don't think now is the time, but it is something we need to consider and at some stage prioritise.
Benmara
2500m RC drilling program is about to start and results expected before the end of the year. This could be the break we need.
But in saying that, there have been other projects that could have been the break we need but haven't delivered yet.
I am unsure as to whether this is funded or not, I will assume it is fully funded, but it will cost about $750k if RC drilling is $300 per meter.
Once the results come back and we prioritise our targets we will likely need to do a deeper and more comprehensive follow up drilling campaign. Again, no idea, but if we are spending ~$750k on the initial drilling, I think we will need about $1.5m to $3m.
Do they need to raise this money now? I would say no, BUT only if the results that come back are excellent. If they aren't it would be much harder to raise again in the future.
I would say raise what you need now, which I would estimate to be $2m - $4m
64 North
Multiple prospects, currently all of our eggs are in one basket with Pogo East.
I would like the company to unlock more opportunities here, I think we need to ramp up the exploration there should our primary prospect come back with "no significant intercepts". It is a brutal fact, but one we must consider.
How much has been spent so far? $2m?
What do we need to spend to unlock more land, do more drilling and prove up the land? Another $2m - $4m?
Wollogorang
In reality, I believe this is no longer our project, and the impression I got from Duncan's comments in the presentation is he would be happy to let MIN put all of the money and we just free carry as much as we can.
Obviously if the results are spectacular, then it would make sense for us to try and maintain our stake / control of the project.
For now we don't have to spend a cent which is a massive win.
General Operating Costs
I think Duncan is being sensible with the cash, but let's say another $3m.
I would like your thoughts.
(20min delay)