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14/10/21
09:36
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Originally posted by steve10:
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I think the AFR article is ambiguous. What they are trying to say is that the combined companies will have revenue of $21M & Kaddy did $18M GVM for 1M cases pa. $18M GVM x 10-15% = $1.8-2.7M revenue. With 21 staff, offices, marketing etc they probably have $3M overheads. $21M - $1.8-2.7M = $18.3-$19.2M DW8/Partons / 4 = $4.575M - $4.8M Q1 FY2022. Forecast revenue was 3 x $0.5M DW8 + 2 x $1.25M Partons = $4M so they will be over by about 15-20%. Dilution from the acquisition is about 21%. Would have been better to wait 6 months, raise at 20c & have about 6% dilution. It looks like we are getting 10% revenue increase for 21% dilution. However, there is potential for logistics to deliver a portion of the 1M cases pa for Kaddy currently delivered by others. Every 10% equates to 100k cases x $20 = $2M revenue. The big picture is to do $1B GVM & 9.5M cases pa which equates to 5% market share in Australia. $1B GVM x 12% fees = $120M pa all gross profit 9.5M cases x $20 = $190M pa x 20% gross profit = $38M gross profit should cover all overheads 5% Australian market share = $310M pa revenue & $158M GP Allowing for $38M overheads results in $120M EBITDA x 30 = $3.6B MC or about $1.44 SP. EDV has $12.39B MC / $652M EBITDA = x19 but is a more mature business. $12.93B / $445M NPAT = PE 29.
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I interpret this as an annualised revenue of $21 million for Kaddy alone. “Kaddy was launched in September 2019 by Rich Coombes and Mike Abbott, and since then, it’s grown to a gross marketplace value of $18 million, shipping more than 1 million cases of drinks each year. It has annualised revenue exceeding $21 million.” I guess we will find out tomorrow.