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2.7¢ kaddy limited

AFR articles are always ambiguous and cryptic...

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RobertGrayndler

114 Posts.

16

14/10/21

19:38

Post #: 56809497
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Originally posted by steve10: ↑

I think the AFR article is ambiguous.

What they are trying to say is that the combined companies will have revenue of $21M & Kaddy did $18M GVM for 1M cases pa.

$18M GVM x 10-15% = $1.8-2.7M revenue. With 21 staff, offices, marketing etc they probably have $3M overheads.

$21M - $1.8-2.7M = $18.3-$19.2M DW8/Partons / 4 = $4.575M - $4.8M Q1 FY2022.

Forecast revenue was 3 x $0.5M DW8 + 2 x $1.25M Partons = $4M so they will be over by about 15-20%.

Dilution from the acquisition is about 21%. Would have been better to wait 6 months, raise at 20c & have about 6% dilution.

It looks like we are getting 10% revenue increase for 21% dilution. However, there is potential for logistics to deliver a portion of the 1M cases pa for Kaddy currently delivered by others. Every 10% equates to 100k cases x $20 = $2M revenue.

The big picture is to do $1B GVM & 9.5M cases pa which equates to 5% market share in Australia.

$1B GVM x 12% fees = $120M pa all gross profit
9.5M cases x $20 = $190M pa x 20% gross profit = $38M gross profit should cover all overheads

5% Australian market share = $310M pa revenue & $158M GP

Allowing for $38M overheads results in $120M EBITDA x 30 = $3.6B MC or about $1.44 SP.

EDV has $12.39B MC / $652M EBITDA = x19 but is a more mature business. $12.93B / $445M NPAT = PE 29.

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AFR articles are always ambiguous and cryptic...

DW8 Price at posting: 6.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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