Ann: Trading Halt, page-46

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zzya1979

544 Posts.

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27/10/21

20:22

Post #: 57125096
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Originally posted by setfire2thehive: ↑

Maybe it will drop below, I don't control the market. But for context GLN had 242 (or there abouts) SOI prior to the 50M placement for a MC of around 300M.

Post the announcement where they effectively chucked another 44m share on the registry. Plus the options that were exercised end up with 288M SOI. So post CR yes the MC dropped 12m or 4%.

As indicated at 40c (given the dilution of the issuance) we maintain the MC we have today.

That's what most investors don't understand about the CR. The MC of the company tends to remain the same. The reason the S/P drops is generally a direct factor of the dilution.

Additionally, if GLN was at BFS stage about to initiate final investment decision I wouldn't have expected the S/P to pull back at all. For GLN At 40% it's NPV it's pretty fairly valued given how far into the development it is. PSC much closer to production, less capex, and will be 20-25% NPV post the 2.4mtpa direct study IMO.

But if we like using historical examples I'll use AVZ. They raised 40M at 13c which was an 19% discount to the traded price. S/P never went below 14.5c.

View attachment 3740648

But absolutely anyone that wants to wait if you can get in below 40c credit to you. I'll be right there buying with you. Average of 11c currently but happy to average up at those prices.

8 times out of 10 they do touch or go below the CR price generally due to dilution so as to maintain the MC. Have been in a few where it does the opposite and the people aiming for CR raise prices end up chasing.

SF2TH

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I totally agree with your analysis. Be careful that the MC/NPV of PSC is based on 87% of the lithium project. Partnership likely will share 40-50%, like ffx. Yes, closer to production, higher MC/NPV, like LTR, LKE, INR. GLN is a bit too far from production but high lithium content and significant upside potential make it attractive - it may be T/O by big players soon, who knows. I was luck to sell 300 k PSC shares at average of 0.45 and buy GLN at 1.08. Hope I still have the chance to buy PSC.

PSC Price at posting: 44.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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