Ann: Trading Halt, page-157

I have been super bullish on IDT ever since March where I did some deep diving but the critical point yet to be mentioned here is, and I cannot express this enough... Moderna and Pfizer will not license their vaccine out to anyone! there are so many articles about them refusing to do so due to margin cuts on their profits etc. This is why Australia is trying to develop their own mRNA vaccine (the one Monash and IDT are working on) however they have not yet started phase 1 trials.

Novavax isn't yet FDA approved (they are hoping to be approved by end of the year) and even if they do get approved it is too late for any significant deal as gov has made their decision on Moderna... Obviously, the gov would have looked at multiple options but the best option right now must have been to allow Moderna to build and produce here with their own plant.

The best two outcomes of IDT right now are:
1: Novavax is approved before the new year / early next year by FDA and they allow the license of their vaccine to IDT for manufacture.

2: government gives some of the manufacturing grants to IDT (800 million) however these grants are shared and will be divided up so they aren't going to get 800 million. I would suspect 20% of IDT's market cap as that is the usual government handout.

I think outcome 1 is unlikely as IDT's plant is tiny and they are already working on the mRNA vaccine with Monash so CSL is more likely to get this job. Outcome 2 doesn't lead to anything except a strong cash balance unless they have a vaccine to manufacture which depends on outcome 1. Their in house vaccine won't be ready for one maybe two years at best.

I don't like to invest based on 'what if's.' Multiple approvals/ awards need to be put in motion in IDT's favour so if you are holding this based on a Novavax partnership then I think you are clutching at straws.

Gl to all