I understand emotions are running hot at the moment, particularly with limited information we have been provided. I am going to wait until all the information is presented before I make my next move, which is still likely 98% hold.
The fundamental of the business has not changed. It is a difficult business to operate and I imagine not a single person on this board has the gumption to do it for even a day. All of us are hoping to get our at least 3X bonanza based on the analysis from Auctus and others. If one hopes to get 300%+ returns in 1-2 years, why are you so unnerved by a potential 13% fluctuation in the short term? There is no gain without pain. Calima is a frustrating stock. My other oil holdings have all exceeded 80%+ growth in the past year. Calima is my largest and most stubborn. Maybe I am stubborn too, but patience does get rewarded is you are investing in real FCF, which I believe has not changed here. Sure, I am annoyed by a dilution, but if we hear they are diluting for the right reasons, and not to cover up some hedging mistake, then I consider that a positive dilution.
As an investor, I am pleased they are raising capital while capital is still relatively cheap and WTI is high to shore up the balance sheet. Personally, I think WTI drops lower from here before it continues to $100+. I am hedging my Calima and other oil position by shorting USO ETF. Not sure if any of you have access to hedging in that way, but I believe in a worse case scenario WTI could go back to $50, in which in case we could see Calima at .15. In the short to intermediate term, anything can happen with Calima. My investment horizon is 5+ years, so I am willing to take some near term paper losses to build a stronger financial foundation for the capital rotation we are likely to witness in this upcoming decade.
I agree the way this was handled left much to be desired, but what else is Calima leadership to do? Tell all of us they are doing this and drag down the price while they are negotiating the capital raise. That would have been a worse move IMO. Given all the circumstances, I think this is likely the best possible outcome. Sure, this will shake out a few of us with weaker hands. I would be happy to say goodbye to those with less conviction and welcome serious institutional investors into the mix, which is a likely possibility we will find out soon.
Finally, the shares that Calima Executives as well as their friends and family own aren't moving and won't move anytime soon. From a selfish standpoint, I don't believe Glenn, Jordan, Braydin, et al are going to make a decision that will negatively impact the long term futures of their families. I am up to .50% ownership of Calima and if the stock goes to .15, I will likely be a 1-2% owner when I back up the truck. I am still very bullish on Calima and their leadership. I don't see any reason most of you shouldn't continue to be if you just take the emotions out of it.
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