@Hotdog11”These guys are clowns”…. Based on the share price chart…I agree shareholder returns have been lacklustre to say the least …but in the context of the performance of the whole biotech market …it proves nothing . The old adage…”it is better to travel than arrive” ..is very apt in the resource sector but not often in the healthcare sector. I never cease to be amazed as investors pile in to the announcement of a new gas discovery offshore which often requires further wells to determine if it can be commercial and many years of planning and environmental surveys before a Final Investment Decision . The market for Orthocells products post approval is
immediate. In fact ,
private practice surgeons in Australia will be able to use Remplir almost immediately…supplied direct by the Company. Use before public reimbursement is set, presumably in the next few months, will probably be at a 50% price premium….against my expectations of an early teens (AUD1,300-1400) price point post reimbursement list price being set. I am modelling an approx 1.4-1.5 membranes per procedure which I believe is typical of the peripheral membrane procedure mix for this category of product…although I recognise that in certain smaller specialist areas such as tetraplegics you could be utilising seven/ eight membranes?.
Today saw a high volume of shares. As i expected, the stale bulls and superstar traders played with the buying and selling levels…but I have news for you…within a few months I believe that volumes will start to ramp. The Company , I understand , has apparently received a good response to the launch of Remplir at a conference for hand surgeons earlier in the year. With a sensible distribution agreement in place for a few other Asian markets (see my previous post) I can see Remplir building up to US$10m of sales within two years ….but this assumes only a modest market share where it is likely to authorised for sale very quickly. Within 4-5 years , we should be looking at north of US $100m+ market assuming US approvals …it’s not rocket science folks.. just needs a good distributor agreement to start the ball rolling in the next 6 months. Even fund managers will be able to get it !
One could argue that post full approval, there might be many clowns on this board dumping their shares ? Time will tell. It is difficult to have the conviction to hold having been pummelled for such a long time, but I try not drive looking at the rear view mirror…. Alternatively, you could ask yourself another question ….after all the uncertainty and delays, is this approval news really priced in after one day ? Even before the Company has even started its first investor presentation …I DON’T THINK SO….but then again I have bought a lot of shares myself , so please seek independent financial advice and do your own research. . OP
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