I make it 16.45% diilution on straight SOI and 20.5% dilution of all options exercised, but of course options being exercised comes with at least $11m cash inflow assuming all will be at the same 13c strike price
and if this squares away all the cash requirements enroute to the "no brainer mine decisions" (totally agree with that point above), then we should see the below playing out more than we have since the Financial Scoping Study was at best warmly received, which just on the Open Pit mine stage / project (at current JORC Resources and NPV8) should see us at between 30c - 40 cents fully valued to the intially calculated NPV, but then we also expect those resources to be getting a nudge up along the way as more assay results come into the mix, plus also the increase in the price of gold to flow back into Offtake Price modelling.
So base case without the other potential projects is in the order of 4x - 5x upside from yesterday's 7.3c close price seems realistic, and depending on the source of Finance as to whether we need a BFS in addition to the DFS and/or will they be worked on in paralell so the incremental effort to produce a BFS only requires a small window of time.
my opinions anyway, and I also conccurr that a few larger shareholders is a good scenario too, as it limits the free float outside of the Top 20
rough calcs to consider:
25% of Minority Interest NPV = $143m x 25% ~$35.5m
50% of Minority Interest NPV = $143m x 50% ~$71.5m
both numbers are significantly above market cap of ~$22m, and attribute zero value in the potential of the other two projects which no doubt we'll be getting good news on those along the way too, nor any to the possible outcome in the DR claim.
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I make it 16.45% diilution on straight SOI and 20.5% dilution of...
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