interesting points, and I’m not saying your wrong.
regarding urea price and duration before pull back. I think there is too much uncertainty for analysts to be able to predict with any certainty based off past economic indicators. The political instability is now moving the situation out from economic prediction and into geo-politics..
what I think many people underestimate is the extent that political friction precipitated by stark ideological difference (democracy verse communist/totalitarian) can and will affect status quo of the economic world order as we understood it.. all extant price predictions are still based on a more or less global free trade economy. China’s turning inward, and set conditions to project military power into SEA, Russia has crippling sanctions and is looking to suspend all urea exports.. Look how long the Cold War lasted, Russia is now in a hot war with neighbours, this won’t blow over soon.
there is no way that the same price should be used for the BFS. seperate to geopolitical factors, gas prices have doubled over the last 18 months and trending upwards, feedstock alone indicates urea price would be close to, or more than double that of the PFS assumption.
I don’t see urea hitting sub $500 this decade.
interesting points, and I’m not saying your wrong. regarding...
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