VML 0.00% 0.2¢ vital metals limited

Ann: Trading Halt, page-92

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  1. 243 Posts.
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    Hi guys I know this is probably the wrong thread but considering whats hopefully to come. Fingers crossed. I though I'd give and update on what may happan. Presuming tomorrows news is as good as anticipated, I suppose the options that may occur are

    1. Gap and fade. As we can see on both the daily and weekly on the bottom chart previous moves up towards, 9, 7.5 and 7.2 have been sold dow. What does that tell us. Well it means that there have been holder who have been waiting to get out for a while and dumped on the news. The other problem is that the volume for these levels has been quite substantial. What does this mean? It means there are quite a lot of trapped buyers who bought at these levels and have been stuck for some time. Probably institutions and retail. It explains the big build up sell volume in the 7's. Therefore a gap up above 7 may be sold into again before buyers bring come back and build a new base. It also means any potential gap will need to be on some seriously large volume. Volume we havn't either seen before or seen since early 2021.

    2. Gap and continue move up. To me this is the unliklier of the move, just because of the supply the buyers will need to work through. I think a gap above 7.5 will be a drea scenario and hopefully we base there before climbing towards. ATH. Here is the good news. Once we do manage to clear through 7.5 a lot of volume selling shoudld subside. In addition as we do make our way to ATH we will hopefully briging some much needed new buyers and volume. Once we do manage to take out the 9 cent level supply should in theory be really thin and hopefully lots of buying surplus and new instituitions will jump in. FOMO will kick in and we will hopefully clear 10 cents and then the rest is history.

    3. The above option is possible, however I think the news would have to change the way the market views our fundamentals are clarify some things. Ie, we extend our Offtake substantially with clear revenue figures. Or we indicate clear revenue figures to the maket or roundabout way and the date at which we will receive them. I mentioned earlier that best case scenario would be revenue of about 50 Mill AUD either before or after costs.

    4.Last note on the chart, If we look at the golden cross that has occured on the top chart, cast your mind back to the last time the golden cross occured. For those playing along I measured it and it was a 727% increase. Now obviously this is just a pure dream scenario but an 727%% increasse on our share price now. Obviously a lot has changed since then obviously dilution and the price was so small that big increases were much more free to occur. but s 700% increase would obviously make our share price 0.48cents and that was over a 2 year period.

    5. I tstated previously based on LYC that more realistic target for us will be a PE ratio of 15 currently it is about 5 and LYC is 30 and that would tripple our share price to 0.2 or so which I think is reaosnable in the medium term. Anywho my thought.

    Fingers are crossed for tomorrow.

 
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