Ann: Trading Halt, page-40

My take on the situation;

Independent report will;
- Not contain price target. It should have some comparative takeovers from pre-commercial purchases for shareholders to consider
- Will include the risks if a No vote goes ahead
- Will note premium. Should note that market did not have time for 'price discovery' on the back of $4 million product license
- Will note the significant action taken by shareholders against the takeover
- Will conclude that the scheme is not in the interests of shareholders based on phone surveys (Take the house analogy, price may be fair, but seller is not forced)

ResApp board will now meet to discuss the best course of action. All parties will have a good idea if 11.5c is a no go or not - I assume 11.5c is not enough to do the deal. FIL combined with TTs poll participants have enough shares to sink the deal. This will be considered for today's meeting. Given all information at hand and the independent saying no, they will no longer support the deal and keep the $4 million. After a short fall in share price from the arbitrage investors, RAP and Pfizer will announce a product license deal. (See scenario 1)

My second most likely scenario is # 2. I believe RAP's board support for the deal would've sapped the confidence of investors and 30c realistically would be enough to get over the line.

Possible course of action

1) Independent valuation not in best interests, RAP board remove support & Pfizer extend license agreement - 40%
2) Independent valuation not in best interests, RAP board remove support & Pfizer walk - 1%
3) Independent valuation not in best interests, RAP board remove support & Pfizer lift bid & Shareholders approve- 20%
4) Independent valuation IS in best interests, RAP board continue support & Shareholders approve - 10%
5) Independent valuation IS in best interests, RAP board continue support & Shareholders disapprove, Pfizer extend license agreement- 10%
6) Independent valuation IS in best interests, RAP board continue support & Shareholders disapprove, Pfizer increases bid to 25c+ & Shareholders approve, - 5%
7) Another bidder emerges ie bidding war - 14%