As I posted a bit too much recently, I decided to stay silent for a while.
But, a lot of people seems genuinly worried to see a PL2 remake, with the share price droping to 0,03.
This will not happen.
As earger as I'm to buy under 0,10 on monday, I don't believe for second that a PL2 remake is in the card.
- An accident (Chips stolen, fire at Fremont facility) ? Possible but hard to believe.
- A neutral or midly positive announcement ? Probaby.
- A positive announcement ? Possibly.
Why ?
Because Chairman van den Hoek was there when negotiating the next phase with Imec after the PL2 crisis.
The chance that he would allow this PL2 drama to be played again are nil.
PL2 occured because Imec / 4DS collaboration was nice on paper, but a bit too loose when execution has to be monitored step by step and day after day.
I suspect some ingineers where asleep at the wheel.
The collaboration agreement with Imec changed.
Imec is not only in charge a making PL3 along 4DS specifications, They are interested in the result and will share futur royalties on the tech. This imply a different level of responsability.
[And by the way, this interest on futur royalties was only revealed at the end of 2021. For those how believe that the board disclose everything to shareholders, this is the proof of the contrary. They just can't disclose everything and ASX won't force them to do so].
Those changes seems to have produced results.
In 2022 announcements, 4DS mentionned that not only the etch problem has been solved, but that a number of technical issues have also been adressed.
As far as PL3 production by Imec is concerned, all bases have been covered.
And, imo, they have already tested almost everything at Imec.
Why ?
Because why taking any chance when you can spend a bit more time and money with Imec to be absolutely sure ?
Chairman and CEO have managed multi billion companies.
These people never take any chance.
At this stage, it either remain secret or it works.
So, PL3 delivered to Fremont works, and the board already knows the most evident metrics (further testing could be justified for some datas that need time ).
The board problem now is that these progress have been hidden to shareholders.
That's why they stated many times that PL3 success probability have dramaticaly increased.And now, they have to disclose something either because they send megabit test chips to interested parties, as Mooselington said, or because some leaks has been identified at Imec.
But also because they need to publicly put their flag on the discovery to preempt any possible claim on the tech.
Of course the possibility of a technical issue still exist (new test equipment have to be changed ?.
But I very serioulsy doubt it.
Imo, they absolutely need to announce known results, because they can't keep shareholders in the dark for too long, but also because they need to confirm that they reached the top of this montain first.
Competitors are not waiting.
(All in my opinion, as usual)
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