wrt: "Do we really have a quality ore-body with low cap-ex? Or...

wrt: "Do we really have a quality ore-body with low cap-ex? Or are people just getting over-excited?"

that's 3 issues.

The ore-body is complicated, but the quality that most like about it is NOT the 0.4% NdPr but the fact that the NdPr is ~30+% of the total chemical-consuming booty. Most of the financing will be done on the basis of support for the magnet industry - meaning DyTbNdPr.

Comparing to Mt Weld is not as straight-forward as 0.4% vs 2%.

"Low capex" is not as important as low COP given the certainty of the need and demand; the financing will be there, imho.

Japan latched onto Lynas and basically provided capex support on behalf of all its producers (Toyota had its own REE initiatives in numerous ore bodies worldwide). China has done the same with resources around the world. That leaves ex-China ex-Japan ROW looking unprepared as the Electric Age ramps up NOW and continues for the foreseeable future because there is no substitute for REE permanent magnet materials like [DyTb]-NdPrFeB and SmCo. [[[[There are no other elements on Earth with as many unpaired electrons (the source of "permanent" magnetism) and these elements are common enough that demand can be met with aggressive mining and refining even while producers will continually seek to thrift them in lower content magnets (Toyota has reported a neomagnet with ~20% less NdPr (replaced with free electrons from LaCe) and smaller lighter vehicles where possible.]]]]

"People just getting over-excited"? There's a reason they're "over-reasonable" and I suspect many are simply early investors that spend a lot of time doing other stuff while this opp defines itself and moves forward.

Outside of Lynas, AUS REE is a bit of short term crap shoot, but imho all the current projects you mentioned will move to production, though not with refineries at every site. I am betting big refiners will richly support those who produce the highest basket price concentrate, and whether they refine or not will be a matter of how the market develops AND how governments address the Thorium issue (if China and/or India move to monetize thorium via use in nuclear energy, it would unleash massive mineral sands resources and disrupt the current balance of power imho).

All my opinion. DYOR. GLTASH.