The Market will stay skeptical until it sees how much free cash flow and profits show up in the accounts . Basically how much money is available to grow the business . I know there has been talk of of dividends or capital returns but I think they are much more likely to invest in more exploration .
A lot of uncertainty around the cost of processing with CO2 capture and the price they will get for the gas and the net amount after all the companies costs have been taken into account . The first couple of quarterlies after production starts will be very interesting .
A merger with VEN does seem logical and would unleash some efficiencies. I think the Market is about right in its relative valuation of the two businesses as VEN has some valuable assets outside of its JV assets with MEL . If VEN was to make an all script offer for MEL you would expect it to have to be at better than the present implied Market ratio to give it any chance of success.
To make it clear I think both businesses are reasonably well run and are both undervalued .
MEL Price at posting:
2.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
