There was a lot of uncertainty created with the change of product from EPR to beneficiated phosphate rock. EPR selling price was expected to be much higher than the phosphate price although cash costs would be a little lower with the phosphate rock. So despite the scoping study info, a lot of research and much higher phosphate prices, I'm struggling to have any confident idea on the new NPV other than I think it should be well above the current mc. We also need to consider that scoping studies have much more error allowance than a DFS. This sort of uncertainty coupled with the weak macro environment has probably contributed significantly to the weak sp and very low mc. Funding has since been sorted so my belief is that the clarity and confidence that the DFS should provide to the market could see a big re-rate to the sp. Some of that re-rate on the DFS release and some in subsequent days, weeks and months. How much of a re-rate will depend on what the market was allowing for and what we get in the DFS. With an enterprise value of just $55mill, the market isn't allowing for much at all between the two projects. Effectively $27.5 million for each project seems to me to offer very big upside from here.
MNB Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
