Some thoughts:1. Apparent large cash cost gap. Supposedly A$85/t...

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    Some thoughts:

    1. Apparent large cash cost gap. Supposedly A$85/t at port; A$131/t on ship (ann 18 Aug,2022). September qrtly suggests 15kt at port yet cash acquitted somewhere nearer A$206/t. Regardless of how much catch up this might include, it does not bode well for establish at least a cash neutral operation.
    2. Not acheiving production targets. "At tthe target production rate...the project will be generating revenue equivalent to the full payment of 7,500 t ...every 8-10 days...". 2 paragraphs later " targeting being able to acheive the full rate of production by the end of the quarter..." (ann. 18 Aug,2022). First shipment announced 31 October (inferring flow rate something like 10kt per month and not 750t / day). I think the next shipment is slated to occur late January. IMO this is a pure management problem in part accentuated by [deliberate] over promising and under-delivering. I think low productivity 'underpinned' quite a few announcements yet restoration looks to be hurtling along at a glacial pace. Again, not helpful in establishing a cash neutral opeation which looked possible given the negotiated off-take arrangements
    3. Capital spend not consistent with Capital raise documentation. Per the meeting resolution, A$4m raised was intended to be acquitted in the form of capex (A$2.55m) and working capital (A$1.45m). Reading the quarterly, the numbers look more like capex (A$1.23m), increase in cash (A$1.06m) and presumably balance acquitted on other components of working capital (A$1.71m). This suggests that there remains [at least] another A$1.3m to complete proposed capital works. See also 1 above
    4. Plan ahead doesn't have a 'long term focus' feel about it..Notes conversion, vendor re-financing, capital raise 1, now capital raise 2, short term vendor finance, sprayed project focus (QLD operations hapening (???)) being driven by a shallow organisation. All facilities 12 month terms, high cost. In hindsight, it's hard to glean what ELE were thinking when they offered a 12 month vendor exit package ... an ASX minion raising A$30m in 12 months regardless of how 'sexy' the underlying project is can at best be described as ambitious; conceivably, reckless. Regal's presence on the register is still an enigma. I had formed the view that discussions had been had with Regal and packaging this finance up was but a formality, underpinned by A$??? capital raising.

    I expect this will be another convertible note ... maybe A$2.5m at a conversion of say A$0.015 ... to keep the coy afloat until the cobalt and gold recovery is operational. Without it, IMO, ELE is insolvent. Bugger !

    Have a great day
 
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