Thanks BBB, always a sensible heart felt post. That being said, here is a differing view. You should run this logic by shareholders of companies such as;
After-pay when at $150 with negative profits, LYC (from $1 to $10 in the space of several short years). LKE (up $1 to $2.50 in a day or so on a takeover offer last week, after coming from recent 6c to $2.20-like all other Lithium companies, just because), YAL that has given circa 50% dividends over the last 12 months that was told coal is at the end of its lifecycle…
The share market is a funny place, and there are many variables that you cannot determine now. Whilst there is also downside risk as we all know, the upside ceiling is not a ceiling based on milestones as you elude.
Your (or my for that matter) guidance is a personal view and the factors that you have noted guide a share price to some degree, and I respect that is what a text book says, but ARU will have many more twists and turns that are way outside what theory from a text book has to offer, and, you nor I will ever see these factors coming…
Consider QAN share price and have a look at the net profits over the last decade. It’s not black and white and when you look carefully, that is very clear.
Consider companies such as BHP when it announced its largest ever profits (many years) back and the drop in share price. Why? For many various reasons outside the scope of this forum.
With regard to ARU and share price, ARU could go to the moon, but by the very same token, as you have noted, it can follow a conservative pathway…and I suppose that’s why we are all on ARU, as we are backing it is ‘more the moon’ rather than a measured tracking of what theory suggests, or can see coming…
What if Gina wants to turn this into a mega company? and suggests doubling volume? How does that work in your share price prediction? Than what if there are other interested parties in the west, from other mega wealthy that want to get on board with one of the only large scale REO projects outside of China, to get going in the last decade.
This share price prediction thing, is way above both your and my pay grade…
(20min delay)