Chinese controls. Clearly Chinese determine the prices of reo's....

Chinese controls. Clearly Chinese determine the prices of reo's. Yet we see the expected increase in demand as forecasts project and the Chinese themselves have increased output quotas 20% for next 6 months. Which of course is in contrast of falling reo pricing and absolute any logic between supply/demand pricing - so pretty obvious the Chinese are playing it to suit.

Throw in the Lynas appeal through courts in Malaysia end of this month which appears a 50/50 chance at best of success - thus reducing global supply for many months - or at least Lynas capacity to supply their customers - force Majoure comes to mind. That may or may not see a swing upwards in reo pricing - well automatically one would expect as supply disruptions ex China for which Lynas are the major player sees not only short supply/squeeze but the Wests desperate needs to secure supply ex China.

Return to Chinese controls - they want to squeeze the life out of potential new projects (they did previously which almost saw the demise of Lynas but for JARE backing/support of Lynas which remains very firm today. So now they play that low pricing scenario - card again for near term miners ARU - ILUKA to create a level of uncertainty. Clearly there is a disconnect between increased supply needs that are real - the 20% Chinese increase in production and reo pricing that Chinese control. Sooner the pricing structure/connect - alignment with Chinese pricing is removed the better for all - it will not happen overnight but when more producers arrive from 2025 ARU - ILUKA - Lynas soon from KAL plant and US in 2025 - the better. I certainly would not like to be outside those top 3 at present with holdings as they hold the immediate critical future supply needs as verified by ARU'S recent critical announcements with what we know is CONFIRMED and more arriving.

Chinese are astute players - however time - Australians companies whom the world over know our expertise and reliability - ESG - ETC is seeing closure to ARU'S off take and finance - then on with the show - production - future supply contracts detached from Chinese price controls - manipulation. Let's not forget Australia has done the same with bulk commodities iron ore - coal for a couple of major examples where exorbitant pricing made Australian companies and Gov billions and billions - but that was supply demand which was attached to pricing yet what we see here now with reo's is anything but with the only other reason being China want pricing of reo's lowered and other to manufacture everything lower and lower inputs - lower global pricing - which as the WEST diversifies away from Chinese cheap supply chains - well who knows where they will dump all there cheap manufactured goods. India is interesting as they rapidly grow and time will tell results of recent Australian ministerial visit there which appeared on face value very optimistic on many fronts and reo's being one. Sorry for the long answer but I feel it was needed. Just my rambles anyway and how I see it - now is not imperative although slightly disappointing in the recent binding off take agreement that pricing will be around Chinese pricing but that's only for early years - and with other mechanisms attached - adding a increased premium. Forging these major partners is critical - and benefits that arise from such - financing. A latter date pricing may see a 60/40 split or 50/50 on binding offtake - market when a lot of debt is paid down - this is a multi decade project that requires a balanced off taking process to align with financing requirements - however as we see with Lynas and the cash they are sitting on years past commissioning LAMP and the high pricing achieved - ARU will arrive at that position - and Chinese pricing will not have any impact of ARU'S future revenue. That's how I see it.