@OldGeoThe diagram above is very handy. And it is a pain in the ass that management are being schmucks and not providing appropriate details to SH, thus forcing us to speculate.
Someone else here said they could hear a lot of clanging - and that sounds like tripping rods (removing the drill pipe from the hole in 12 or 24m sections) and stacking them in the rack. I see two scenarios - they are/have either:
- set the intermediate casing and commenced drilling into the Wagina Dongara; or
- they have already penetrated the Dongara/Wagina, and tripped the rods to remove the bit and don the core barrel, in preparation for drilling the Kingia reservoir.
Scenario 1
If the ROP (rate of penetration) of LKR2 is similar to Irwin1 - they would have hit the Dongara/Wagina and they are making their way through the 160m of oil shows...like they did in LD-1. As many remember, they did a cap raise at this point during LD-1. The cynic in me says the oil in the Dongara/Wagina was an indicator to them that the Kingia was likely to meet with success, thats why they did the cap raise to Bell Potter clients...including MIN...before hitting the Kingia, despite having enough cash to see the drill through at the time. Anyway, enough of that. Back to the Wagina/Dongara.
Unlike others, my thesis is that sedimentation into the Dandaragan Trough during the Permian was predominantly sourced from the Pre-Cambrian Shield to the east. Accordingly, I expect better porosity and permeability - and thickness!! - in the Permian units closer to the eastern margin of the trough, like Lockyer and Lead E and D. And Permian includes the Dongara/Wagina units. The coarser and thicker the sand deposits, the more likely it is that permeability has been preserved. It will not be uniform across the field - it never is, but Im sure there will be high permeability zones and we will eventually have an oil field here, as well as a gas field. This is different to the Dongara oil and gas field - in that the dongara/wagina here is oil filled, little gas. So, unlike others, it would not surprise me to find out they had stronger oil shows in LKR-2 in the Wagina/Dongara, including having to flare gas and collecting oil on the mud shakers...and maybe thats what prompted the TH. These are very obvious signs of HC's and the flare could be seen from afar. So, to prevent speculation from those flying drones, and driving Lambo's and to keep SH in the dark, they initiate a TH over Easter. Anyway thats one hypothesis.
Scenario 2
As you have mentioned, modern drilling, plus increased knowledge of the geological sequence (rock layers) in this area - (this is the 9th hole drilled in this neck of the woods to these depths) - may have resulted in the drillers achieving an increased ROP...and the drill is now in the primary zone of interest - the Kingia. I agree, this is very plausible.
I cant imagine them tripping the rods and donning the core barrel
without first ensuring they have intersected gas bearing sands. Aztech did not do this when STX did their coring, I doubt this would happen here (Aztech is on this job too).
So, this being the case...you would bet they tripped the rods and donned the core barrel having intersected the gas bearing Kingia.
Depending on how much gas is there, they may have to flare some gas if it comes to surface. So again, to prevent obvious signs from the drill site escaping into the surrounding areas and creating an uneven laying field for NWE stock, they initiate a trading halt.
Now, irrespective of which of these two scenarios (or parts thereof) ends up being true, there are some key facts that should give SH great comfort.
- The drilling operations are non denominational - they stop for no one. So the next 6 days it will be drill dril drill.
- Given the market is not open over Easter, a TH in anticipation of hitting something over Easter is moot. You could have done a TH Tuesday morning before open and had the same effect.
- The fact they did it today, at 11:20 means they hit something today - likely unexpected. So it could be scenario 1 (or Scenario 2, but the Kingia was higher to prognosis due to minor fault displacement). Or it could be the ASX called them out due to complaints and they responded with a TH or a combination of all of the above.
- Coring operations will take a couple of days, assuming a 50 m core barrel is used. Then drilling will proceed to TD (bit basher shale and High Cliff Sand - a secondary reservoir). So if theyre coring today, make it another 7 days from today to TD.
- Wireline logging will then take another three or so days to run and report.
- The fact they have called a TH means there will be some info provided to SH around todays events.
Well done to all those that have held. My Vulcan salute is now - hold out and prosper.
