I think they need to give updated cost guidance on each site as the picture has changed dramatically. This is what they originally announced back in 2021:
- BluffFOB Cost: A$120-137
- Broadmeadow EastFOB Cost: A$100-110/t
- Burton/LentonFOB Cost: A$100-114
- Isaac River FOB Cost: A$113-122
To be safe you have to take the midpoint of those ranges. Sometime in 2022 they estimated an additional +15% on the above figures, but I don't think it'd be unreasonable to go much higher. As a general coal proxy, take WHC's costs (I know it's mostly thermal but just as an industry guide). In FY21 these were $74/t. In FY22 they were $84/t. For FY23 they have guided to A$105/t (upper end). So from FY21 to FY23 their costs are up just over 40%, and that's for an established miner at scale, not someone ramping up production and competing for new workers at new sites. I don't think it's unreasonable to estimate that Bowen's costs are probably up at least 45% on their original 2021 guidance. If you re-ran the 2021 numbers (taking the original mid-points), you get the following:
- Bluff FOB Cost: A$186/t
- Broadmeadow East FOB Cost: A$152/t
- Burton/Lenton FOB Cost: A$155/t
- Isaac River FOB Cost: A$170/t
This changes the picture significantly and would help explain why they raised $85M in October 22, then took an extra $7M from Taurus in March 23 (which is now fully drawn according to today's term sheet) and are now raising another $50M in June 23. I really think they may run into problems unless the met price recovers.
