CAV 0.00% 0.5¢ carnavale resources limited

Ann: Trading Halt, page-26

  1. 12,830 Posts.
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    Not to worry mate. So if that is indeed what's playing out with the raise , then if we just run through some back of the envelope calc's here.

    If we firstly were to assume that ALL 240,000,000 million shares issued in February 2022 at 1.1 cents , and then added this 489,000,000 being raised at .0045 cents , then the ' Average ' price per share raised based on the say $2,400,000 raised at 1.1 and the $2,200,500 being raised at .0045 cents would be $4,600,500 / 729,000,000 = .0063107 average.

    So let's just call it 6.25 - 6.5 cents to get the assumed ' collective ' of Spoh's out at their break-even.

    But what's even more interesting from there if we simply look at the dilutionary effect across a sequence of re-rated market cap valuations based on the SOI now PLUS the suggested 489 million NEW shares.

    If we say look at a $30 million .....> $45 million .....> $60 million escalated milestone project valuations .

    So at $30 million with the current 2,733,551,728 total shares on issue we have a projected SP at $30 million of 1.1 cents , at $45 million 1.65 cents , and at $60 million would be 2.2 cents or a NEW all time high SP.

    So then when you add the 489 million you get a 15.2% dilution on the increase to total SOI of 3,222,551,728 and a NEW SP valuation trajectory of around .00925 cents at $30 million MC , 1.4 cents at $45 million , and .1.85 - 1.875 cents at the $60 million market cap valuation.

    So my point here is that while on paper , it would appear the .0045 cent suggested cap raise SP is a 25% discount to the last trade price of .006 cents , and even greater discount at .007 cents , the dilution to the SOI and potential subsequent project values at any given price point is more likely only 15%.

    And so that difference and the fact that the Soph's participation across 2 raises and 1 year is averaged at ABOVE the last trade price at point 625 - point 65 of a cent and NOT at the .006 level would seem to set up the raise more for success than disappointment I would think.

    I guess we'll see , but whenever you are getting the shares at a price ALREADY below the average over TWO significant raises including what Directors have contributed PLUS getting them at much less than what the Company even paid for these projects , you'd have to argue that you are doing extremely well to get set at these prices.

    So you could say that it is almost priced for ' perfection '......wink.png

 
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