The TH announcement was for offtake with no mention of financing so I think it might be offtake without any funding at this stage. Funding negotiations are said to be advanced though. The company flagged Aug/Sep for funding. That would have been dependent on offtake timing so a big relief that the offtake looks done now. I'm looking forward to the details on tonnes per year.
August is only two weeks away so the market should start to anticipate debt funding with what I'm hoping will be an uptrend in the sp, similar to the recent uptrend that took the sp up from 7c to 17c in anticipation of the green ammonia tech report. Unfortunately that rally was undone, first by the options related selling and then the heavy April-June selling across the small cap sector.
Will this rally be more sustainable?
Three reasons why it might be.
1. Offtake opens the door to debt funding. The company has significant cash, more than enough for the earthworks and possibly enough to complete the plant assembly considering the EPCM contract was for only US$4.25 mill.
"The US$4.25 million EPCM contract is for the construction of the Cabinda Phosphate Fertilizer Plant and formalises the engagement that was initially started with a Limited Notice to Proceed (LNTP) agreement signed last year1."
So they might have enough cash to complete everything in the critical path of the project schedule. Other work can possibly be done later when the final funding is secured, hopefully without delaying the completion date significantly.
2. With the offtake secured, the final hurdle is debt. When that is secured, the project construction should accelerate towards production and that should give the sp a sustained rally towards whatever the market wants to value the project at when it's completed. Probably somewhere near the after tax NPV IMO which would be mid 20's at the current TSP price or mid 30's at a more likely long term TSP price.
3. World markets got a boost this week with our market having its best day of the year. That was due to US inflation coming down at a fast rate to just 3%. Large cap stocks led the markets higher this year but this sort of news is what can get undervalued small caps moving fast to catch up to the large caps.
"LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - An accelerating dollar slide could be a U.S. gift to its allies by helping them catch up with its impressive disinflation.Seeing headline U.S. inflation tick below 3% for the first time in more than two years in June electrified world markets this week by encouraging a belief the Federal Reserve can finally end its 15-month credit tightening this month.Bond yields recoiled and stock markets surged to 2023 highs."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-exporting-disinflation-via-dollar-slide-2023-07-14/Markets are complicated and large caps took the lead higher but I am seeing a much better outlook for small caps. MNB has been frustrated by delays often measured in months but it keeps kicking the goals. A very handy goal with this news on offtake and one more to go with the final funding. Luckily the company has significant cash to continue construction while waiting on the final funding. We should see a strong sp surge on this news and on the improving environment fort small caps.
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