Ann: Trading Halt, page-62

While the phosphate project that is currently under construction is giving us short term sp catalysts which should see the sp double or triple in the next 3-6 months, I believe that the green ammonia project will go ahead and will give the sp a much larger boost at some point. A likely catalyst will be a deal of some sort with a major company and the start of feasibility studies following the strong tech study results. However, I also think that our yellow phosphorous (for use in LFP batteries) is going to be a winner too.

Last year, LFP made up 28% of the market with the dominant tech being NMC 622.
This year, LFP has leapt into the top spot with 32% of the market and NMC 622 dropping back to 29% share.
Over the next seven years, LFP is forecast to increase its share to 42% with the next largest coming in at 21%. LFP's market share will be double that of the next most dominant tech.
That's a strong increase of market share but EV sales are forecast to grow 25 fold over the next 20 years. So the 25 fold increase in demand for EV batteries is compounded by the increasing market share for LFP. Growth in LFP battery demand will therefore be more rapid than overall EV battery growth forecasts. However with a 25 fold increase in EV sales, even battery tech with decreasing market shares can see strong overall growth.
A significant portion of the LFP will be LMFP which has superior characteristics to standard LFP, in particular around 20% better energy density for around the same price. With pouch technology, LMFP has energy density similar to NCM batteries but with a lower cost, better ESG credentials, longer cycle life, can be charged to 100% frequently with much less degradation and they are much safer, with a much lower fire risk.

While any phosphate company can make claims that they are pursuing yellow phosphorous for LFP, MNB has genuine reasons why they could succeed. Multiple interested partners are a help but more importantly, production is very energy intensive and MNB is located in a country with some of the cheapest energy globally and it's green in the form of hydro electricity with a cost of just 1.5c/kwh or less. Battery manufacturers want ethically sourced, low carbon inputs and MNB can offer exactly that at a very competitive cost base. There is one Australian company that I heard was pursuing yellow phosphorous but they just don't have the competitive edge that MNB has with that extremely low power cost.
While the process may be higher tech than ammonia, MNB is likely to partner up with a larger company that will bring the tech expertise and MNB will bring the phosphate. A big partner bringing the tech, cheap phosphate and extremely cheap energy should be a recipe for success.

This stock has three very good projects lined up with just the first, which is currently under construction, offering strong sp upside. The green ammonia offers blue sky upside with IMO a strong chance of going ahead (thanks again to the power agreement MNB has for electricity at just 1.1c/kwh for 25 year) and the yellow phosphorous looks like a very strong growth market with MNB in a great position to pursue it competitively from a cost perspective, backed up by strong cash flow forecasts from the initial phosphate project to fund studies for both of the next two projects without the need for dilution. To me, the yellow phosphorous project is starting to look even more interesting than the green ammonia and the green ammonia is a great looking project.

The interview linked below on LFP is worth the time for anyone interested in MNB's yellow phosphorous project. I'm looking forward to Lindsay starting to delegate more work to the recent new appointments and hopefully find the time to promote the company more aggressively. There's a very good story (stories) to tell. Broker coverage after funding is secured would be a bonus. A sp in the 30's seems a very likely target to me (DFS after tax NPV of the first project) with very big upside potential from there from the other two projects.

https://www.*****.com/news/video/show/Fastmarkets-Lithium-Supply-and-Battery-Raw-Materials/4578/2023-07-11/The-tipping-point-for-the-electric-vehicle-market#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.*****.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DFastmarkets-Lithium-Supply-and-Battery-Raw-Materials