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GIGAChad

4,970 Posts.

871

01/08/23

10:18

Post #: 69095246
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Originally posted by HeliosUK: ↑

A fair point of view.

A couple of facts I'd call out first... scoping study had $620 USD / $900m AUD capex required for a greenfield assumption build.
Company is investigating a brownfield option and has shared this in the comms in the last few months, with a mention previously that they will make a decision on which direction. Brownfield means massive reduction in capex, therefore I could see this being a $500m AUD build.

Additional advantage of a brownfield is that you can already access the resource through existing and used shafts. Perhaps there's therefore a DSO option to provide an initial revenue stream. It's unlike HFR and other ore bodies in that way, where shaft construction is required. Having Lawrence as COO drives the best possible outcome here - he's set up and expanded Canadian and Russian potash mines. Arguably nobody more experienced for the gig.

On the assumption that the above becomes the direction, the IRR goes from 27% (as per scoping study) to over 50% (which IS a rare find, particularly in the potash world. HFR for example is 42% and is progressing towards production

No doubt that any production decision will need loads of cash, but I'm here for profit, not necessarily for dividends

As you say, plenty of orphaned resources out there. I'm of the view that central Europe helps to mitigate that!

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Difference of opinions is what makes markets after all, i think its just dead money.

MoP is best left to big players and is practically a cartel with plenty of dead jnr's who have given it a shot.

HFR is a special case with great logistics and a cheap orebody with no shafts (expensive) only a couple of declines are required (fast payback).

SHP Price at posting: 3.8¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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