"What matters is the chains of reasoning - in my opinion - no credit for guessing correctly yeah or nay (on a binary outcome - a coin toss has a fifty/fifty chance) - should only be credit for having the detailed reasons for the yeah or nay. Otherwise there was no analysis even incorrect analysis just incorrect conclusions or correct guesses. "
Funny, I think my yeah guess will bring lots of credit .... cash in the bank because I actually invested instead of just arguing the merits. That cash will be there regardless of whether my reasoning made any sense
"What matters is the chains of reasoning - in my opinion - no...
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