Fair call... I hadn't factored the EFA... but by the same token, unless I've missed an update the EFA has only drawn down $3.5m not $5.2m.
So re-adjusting my figures... are we really valuing the entire business and the resource at $5.9m with a 2c valuation?
Given that the company is targeting 440,000 tonnes for CY2024. Their last shipments (excluding the discounted ones) averaged $402AUD per tonne and they're targeting an operating cost of $160-$180AUD/t at stage 1.5 (apologies... I'm on the road right now and couldn't find the stage 1 operating costs... only the DFS figure @$124/t which is unrealistically low now for me to use fairly in this discussion)... giving $220/t profit.
Now that seems a bit high (certainly above DFS figures) so lets halve it, and take off a bit more for mum and the kids and make it $100/t. That's still $44m per year profit. And thats before taking into account any of the benefits (and to be fair costs) from stage 1.5 and 2 and 3 up to 800,000tpa or potential resource upgrades. They could just forget about any upgrades (and associated capex) and just keep pulling in $44m/year.
Regardless... whichever way you cut it... fundamentally a 2c ($5.9million) valuation is ambitiously low despite what the TA says.
Cheers.
CXM Price at posting:
8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
