I'm no longer a holder but habit and curiosity keep me looking in for a little while on stocks I've held. This is just a post to say "well said” to Onceover.
In the two years since my outlook on AZY turned and I started selling, I described myself as a realist, while some thought anything negative equated to downramping. So, it was with a sigh of relief that I read your post as it sums up my thinking about all stocks, and this one in particular. Not because there is anything inherently bad about AZY, but because it is a small cap gold explorer, which by definition is high risk.
What you've written should be obvious, at least to those who are honest with themselves. Sadly, I think most people are not, and they're the ones who blame others for their own mistakes. Blame the government, blame society, blame your parents, blame the media, blame the “patriarchy”. For shares, blame market manipulation, blame the directors. Many people just don’t like pointing the finger at themselves for making a wrong decision in the first place and inaction afterwards. Or worse, throwing good money after bad. As you say, based on greed and, in AZY's case, an irrational belief that there’s something special about this company so the normal risk checks and wake-up calls don’t apply. That belief is helped along by some who have seen their own money eroded, and can't admit that maybe they made a mistake. Perhaps because it’s a terrible feeling to lose money, but even worse when compounded with the knowledge that you brought it on yourself and were wrong.
As I've said before, I don't think the directors – and by that I mean Mr Fill Yer Boots – have done anything worse than exaggerate, which is kind of what you expect from directors. Tell me the difference between optimistic and misleading and 99% of company directors would be the subject of ASIC investigations (for what that’s worth). The other 1% would be unemployed because most people don’t like to hear subdued outlooks from directors of small cap companies. They want shoot the lights out hyperbole to justify the risk they’ve taken.
I think AZY's board has worked well, done what they should do on the corporate and mining level. They’ve just been unlucky, while other companies have been lucky. And, as you say, the possibility remains that they might find something big. While the company is still operating, there’s hope. Unfortunately, hope can turn from a positive feeling to corrosive if it never delivers. And it often stops people from taking action, in the belief that salvation is around the next corner.
There are some terms the board uses that I think are unwarranted. Not quite misleading, but worth questioning. Among them, “first-mover advantage" always raised my eyebrows. Corporate history is littered with companies that have claimed this position and have either disappeared or been overtaken by the later movers. IBM, Beta, Blockbuster, Ansett, Nokia,… AZY might claim to have “first mover advantage in the Patterson” but it looks to me like the second, third and fourth movers have done very well. It’s not about who’s first, it’s about who strikes it big and who doesn’t.
Good luck to all.
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