IVZ 7.95% 8.1¢ invictus energy ltd

Ann: Trading Halt, page-365

  1. 181 Posts.
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    I hate sitting through the price rollercoaster of a CR, and when I do I prefer there to be a SPP or Rights Offer associated so Retail LTH's can get a piece of the action... especially when it kills momentum. For those who have jumped in cheap hoping to get out for a quick buck pre-spud this isn't great for them.

    BUT I guess it comes down to whether you believe the company needs the extra funds for whatever reason, be it for contingencies during the drill, further testing afterwards, the next drill, or simply to keeps the lights on post drill or in the event of a duster. Given that the MD and his team are the company strategy, costs and budget experts... if they say the money is needed I'll take that at face value.

    So then it becomes a balancing act of when to do it? At what price? Too whom? And which holders are they trying to look after (LTH, speculators looking to flip on newsflow, instos, large cornerstone holders)? And given that the drill is the primary goal... all timings revolve around that.

    - If they had of raised a couple of months ago it would have been when our price was 10-12c. Not great. Even a weeks ago we were 20% less at 16c.
    - If they raise after the price already pops too hard, or post-spud you'll get less takers, as capital providers need to see an upside potential.
    - If they raise after a duster... well thats not gonna be good.
    - Unfortunately due to the timing of the spud, I can see why they haven't done a SPP because they take a long time and would probably still be open throughout the drill so you'd probably have seen a significant SP change in that time so the outcome would be binary (all or nothing)... but being greedy, I would like to have seen one anyway... it would almost be like like locking in an option on the raise price now and seeing how the spud tracks prior to close. However, I'm sure the MD doesn't like gambling on the outcome of SPP throughout the drill.

    I hate the fact that this is killing momentum for the moment, but accepting that we will need money for whatever reason in the future, I think this meets the balance given that spud is imminent, and we got $12m at only about 6% dilution.

    I also like oppies as it is an extra sweetener to attract money now without an immediate dilutionary affect on SOI... and if they are exercised, well... it means the SP is much higher than it is now so we should all be happy with that, they bring in more $$$ when they are exercised.

    In short I'm not massively unhappy with the terms and timing of this. Just a couple my thoughts only.

    Cheers.
 
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