WhatsNext & Rookie have it spot on.Unfortunately, it appears our...

WhatsNext & Rookie have it spot on.

Unfortunately, it appears our fate was sealed when Morrison & his cash splash to try to win the last federal election threw a highly constrained $50m at AVL. This apparently have put the 'government funders' in a position where they can't/won't fund 2 vanadium projects.

AVL, regardless of how poor their resource is & how I/we might view their facade of a project, have first mover status & that wins them the race when it's called off early.

And this situation is exacerbated when RCF comes in with a whole load of money & changes the project strategy.

Woulda coulda shoulda, but if we had gone with the first proposal EPA would have been in the bag & our situation totally different atm imo.

Merge, if you call it that, will be at around 32c atm, with AVL management in control.

Another snippet I see is the EPA situation.

We are very confident that things are well in train & expectation is high.

However, a quick scan of the EPA website shows there are around 80 companies sitting in stage 3 of the approval process atm & NONE in stage 4.

Given the current state of the bureaucratic mess caused in WA by the recent changes & backflips what is really happening at the WA EPA?

Are they delaying, are their hands tied, are they just afraid to stamp approvals?

Who knows, but that is also weighing on decision makers minds when they have been confident about EPA approval for 12 months & are still waiting!

I am not a happy camper & have no love for AVL, its project or its shareholders.

However, I have been strongly counselled that RCF have a very strong history of getting a return of 4 to 5 times return on their capital & that, obviously, they see this as their best way of getting it. The RCF investment in TMT is in the mid thirties so we should be expecting a return equivelant to $1.30 to $1.50 per whatever our current holding becomes by say end 2024 if we decide to hang around.

Cheers DYOR