I'm 100% with you. I think it's correct to temper expectations of any unbridled SP reactions to anything for a little while yet.
If i'm any regional OA suitor, Chinese or otherwise, i'm still waiting for a couple of things before I sign cheques or deals - that's even if (as we are given to understand) Day 365 duration and positive MRI data is exactly what i've been waiting for. Principally, i'd like to get full confirmation that we are proceeding to Phase III trials with 2mg/kg twice weekly dosage (which gives me a lot of certainty as to the success of trials) before I splash any major cash....and I would also be very curious to see what the FDA say about the possibility of incorporating DMOAD endpoints (biomarkers, BMEL reduction, reduction in cartilage degradation, whatever it might be) into the upcoming Phase III trials. Until then I won't be able to do my sums with any degree of accuracy around trial risk, and also the metrics around subsequent sales when approved. How do I then calculate an offer of up-front cash, or percentages within a deal? How do I forecast demand, production, supply infrastructure, costs?
PAR won't know the answer to these things until Q1. That could mean 31st March. How does PAR's cash position look by then? If you want to always maintain a couple of quarters worth of cash up your sleeve, it's getting very interesting around this point. That gun that the market has to your head becomes a cannon. Personally, I think short-term funding might need to be addressed before this. Maybe not, just an opinion.
What this brings to the fore for me, is the importance of MPS results in December. Holders shouldn't sleep on these results, as they might end up being crucial. If we are deal-ready for MPS upon those results - and we've clearly already had talks with potential partners - then even a moderately-sized cash injection could keep the wolf from the door. Make no mistake, there is a lot of brinkmanship to come in the next 6 months, and the market loves to punish uncertainty so don't let go of your hats just yet is my advice.
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