Thanks for sharing, it is nice to see Redleaf covering. I think FND is well below where it should be but have several issues with Refleaf valuation:
1) It seems like they are valuing TSI, not FND's share in TSI (a tad over 80%)
2) Share count will rise with option exercise. If price goes below exercise price and options become worthless you would think many players would have interest in getting 10% stake to block a takeover/under (e.g. competitors for takeover/big investors for under), so think SOI should be above 50 mil and assume full dilution.
3) Risk weighting is excessive Parimal just gave a valuation and are invested on basis of IPO. Maybe this is explained in the report but it's a valuation technique I've not seen.
4) I know Parimal used EV/EBITDA but don't understand why this is applied. TSI is an ATM business and machines depreciate. EV/EBITDA is great for mines, but not for FND/TSI that is more like a REIT. I know it is what FND use in presos and Parimal used for valuation, but the logic isn't really clear.
I recognise some of this feedback is a bit harsh, but I strongly think this sort of valuation is unnecessary. Based on the Parimal transaction, they have valued FND’s stake of the TSI business at $183 million or roughly $3.12 per share, and put $37.6 million at risk based on this valuation which you would think as a minimum given they would expect to be coming out ahead at IPO (max 3 years from now). As a small ASX investor, this seems like a no brainer to me given what Parimal paid.
HY results due soon and hopefully WL ann before XMAS should give SP a boost.
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Last
$2.89 |
Change
0.070(2.48%) |
Mkt cap ! $141.0M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.84 | $2.98 | $2.81 | $297.9K | 104.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 2019 | $2.89 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$2.90 | 3500 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 2019 | 2.890 |
2 | 14000 | 2.870 |
2 | 4558 | 2.860 |
3 | 13646 | 2.850 |
1 | 558 | 2.840 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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2.900 | 3500 | 1 |
2.930 | 12329 | 1 |
2.950 | 558 | 1 |
2.960 | 558 | 1 |
2.970 | 558 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 13/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
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Change
0.070 ( 2.62 %) |
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Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
$2.88 | $2.97 | $2.82 | 13559 | ||
Last updated 15.59pm 13/05/2024 ? |
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