Commodities as a class have moved from having the most momentum, to having the second-lowest momentum, in just four weeks. At the last update, I spoke about them losing momentum rapidly over the past 16 weeks, but these recent four weeks have been a frightful collapse. The precious metal complex had briefly been a gainer - from a possible resurgence of "inflation fears" - but that was apparently just a fake-out, as they have fallen pretty badly in the last four weeks. This is the kind of momentum shift that kills trend-following systems like Rotational. The debate will rage about whether this is a correction in an uptrend, or the end of the bubble in commodities; my vote is that the bubble is popped, and the energy complex has seen a "blow-off top" that will constitute overhead resistance for any subsequent rallies.
