Initially I was very unhappy with the proposed merger. However...

Initially I was very unhappy with the proposed merger.

However on reflection while this increased offer is not a great result, it is a good result. A great result would have been TMT getting environmental approvals, finance, and establishing a profitable mine but with the current vanadium price that surely had to be a difficult path.

There were risks to both TMT and AVL if a merger didn’t occur, but the diminished risks for TMT are now a real plus:

1. TMT vs AVL vs TVN vs other wannabe vanadium miners. If TMT secured funding first then it would have made life very difficult for the other players but the same goes vice versa. Surely TMT (and AVL) are now the front runners in the Australian market. I assume this is bad news for other vanadium players (TVN etc)?
2. TMT didn’t have movers and shakers like Guy Debelle. We do now. If it becomes a race between QLD, WA, and say NT to be the only supplier of Australian ESG vanadium then we are better placed now than pre merger
3. TMT didn’t have a compelling argument to fast track our development over AVL (or TVN or other wannabes). If it did then the market would have reflected that value in our pre-deal market cap. The independent expert completely ignored the feasibility studies and instead attributed value based on resource multiples. Not my preferred approach but it would be foolish to ignore how the expert considers value.

While it felt like TMT were on a more disciplined path in respect of development, it seems that AVL had a broader appeal with battery suppliers, vsun, electrolyte plant, and federal backing.

I’m now at peace with the merger. My upside is not as great but my downside is significantly reduced. A good outcome.