I think you're right spider5, it's all about current/future earnings.
I was hoping for a cyber acquisition, so that box is ticked.
IMO ST1 is probably a 10c stock post-completion of this acquisition.
Back of an envelope calcs and rationale. InfoTrust + existing cyber business now circa $65m turnover. Assume one-off costs are out then aim for 10-12% rev to earning margin (circa $7m EBIT). Add to this NexGen earnings of say, circa $8m. So, $15m EBIT. Subtract corporate costs of say $4m plus MS loss of say, $1m (currently in a turnaround phase as you said). So, $15m EBIT less $5m corporate costs and MS operating loss, should equate to circa $10m EBIT. Multiple this x 14 (being the current all-ords average EBIT multiple) gives ST1 a notional EV of $140m. Less $14m net debt ($6m cash + $20m loan). Back of an envelope, ST1 fair market value should/could be circa $125m-$130m.
Current MC is circa $50m (735m shares x 6c). Post acquisition there’ll be approximately 1.3B shares outstanding x 10c SP is circa $130 MC.
If they can turn the MS business around, grow the cyber business with healthy margins, keep corp costs under control, and realise a premium valuation as a “sovereign cyber” business, then this has the potential to be north of 20c in 12 months.
In short, ST1 has all the hallmarks of a TNT #2 (including the same management).
Good luck everyone, it’s going to be an interesting (hopefully lucrative) 12 months.
AIMO.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Ann: Trading halt
I think you're right spider5, it's all about current/future...
Featured News
Add ST1 (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
4.1¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $56.03M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
4.1¢ | 4.1¢ | 4.1¢ | $10.32K | 251.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 228481 | 4.1¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
4.2¢ | 163630 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 228481 | 0.041 |
3 | 169008 | 0.040 |
3 | 288000 | 0.038 |
2 | 66881 | 0.037 |
2 | 21388 | 0.036 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.042 | 163630 | 5 |
0.043 | 400000 | 1 |
0.044 | 2965 | 1 |
0.045 | 50334 | 1 |
0.046 | 25300 | 2 |
Last trade - 14.48pm 20/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ST1 (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
HAR
HARANGA RESOURCES LIMITED.
Peter Batten, MD
Peter Batten
MD
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online