We all lack the full picture so can only amuse ourselves speculating on how much dilution is coming.
With cu price down $1k/t and ES costs up 5% My spread sheet is telling me:
* to expect $2m a month cash surplus from operations in the first three months of processing * rising to $5m /mth in the next three months * peaking at about $6.5 m a month if forecast production is met.
With non operating Cap ex requirements for exploration and mine development and corporate costs probably continuing at the same rate as the burn was after the $42m bank balance was reduced to $10.2m over 7 months its likely continuing at a rate of circa $4.5m a month for another 5 or 6 months to get the plant operating at 40 % capacity.
It would of course continue for another 12 months or more to develop the mine sufficiently to fill the plant.
So my helicopter view is that .
*the $10.2 million was chewed up in the lead up to first cash * we will be burning $ 2.5m a month of cash we don't have coming in if prices don't jump for the next 3 months * will be struggling to break even for the next 3 months while production is ramped up to 40% capacity.
It seems very little needs to be raised to satisfy any immediate going concern issues.
We will all however all be best served if the company is funded adequately to make the most out of the assets by the time the Cu Price rises. Struggling on for another 12 months after the plant reaches 40 % to fund the expansion cap ex is not a good option.
We are in the boards hands and they are well qualified to make the best decision even if they are not motivated as much as some of us would like in terms of keeping dilution to a minimum to satisfy the immediate needs. When a clearer picture emerges of whats required to fill the plant, debt funding of that expansion supported by the much higher cash flows that the expansion will generate might well be a better option now that the development risk is sorted and our producing mine is a much more bankable risk.
We can but wait with bated breath for our fate to be disclosed.
HGO Price at posting:
6.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
