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A great analysis Aqil, your numbers generally Gel with my...

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LiquidLime

43 Posts.

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18/03/24

09:44

Post #: 72934349
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Originally posted by Aqil: ↑

I think you're failing to see the bigger picture.

If the restructured debt and hedge became effective 1st Jan 2024, I expect CAI to be reducing their cash balance by $0.5M/week or $6M in Q3 FY24.

For CAI to have a cash balance of $20M by June, I suspect the capital raise (and/or debt to equity swap) to be around $7.5M.

At 13c, an additional 60M shares on top of 610M outstanding shares is insignificant; especially considering the new structure will allow CAI to be in a cash-building position for the rest of the year.

Looking at the FY25 guidance:

Assuming gold price is $3,250, cash inflows should be $47M.

Cash outflows:
Operating expenses: $32M
Other: $4M
Debt: $5M
Total cash outflows: $41M

If the mill operates at 10% below nameplate capacity (as you alluded to), CAI will still be cashflow positive.

Factoring in the options at 30c raising $15M and potential bond financing at the end of the calender year, this becomes interesting.

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A great analysis Aqil, your numbers generally Gel with my calculations, the only question I have is “Has Calidus got there ASIC figures correct for transportation of ore from their satellite mines to the processing plant?” It appears to be on the low side......?

CAI Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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