Based on 160m MC.Current estimates are 5-15m shares that are...

Based on 160m MC.
Current estimates are 5-15m shares that are floating that could be sold. The rest are tied up with LTHs, Board, top 20% etc. Now imagine this scenario:
The suspension has created a rerating opportunity because the buy and sell side have been cleared, so once it opens, who is putting a sell order in at anything less than a ridiculous profit?

Imagine there's 20 retail investors that want to drop $100K each (that's worldwide, after one of the most poignant announcements to address the geopolitical concerns in the western world). So that's $2m that floods in at ridiculous levels.

Then imagine one fund that wants to deploy $2m, or a group of funds, once the announcement further derisks.

Now the price is up in the realm of ASX 300 or 200. This allows super funds etc to jump in.

Suddenly that 5-15m of shares seems tiny (remember the price jumped 20% on no news and ~$280K)

The conditions around ARL for a spike are unique, purely based on how few shares are available, let alone one of the most significant supply chain announcements of the last few years.

Not even considered:
The announcement is coupled with further news of other interested OEMs etc for other areas of interest on the tenement.
Potential funding from Aus. Gov that also gets announced.
ARL free carry through DFS to FID, with no dilution