I actually agree the share would be closer to 50%, I just disagree that it's priced in. 50% would be 400m ebitda a year, 2.5x our current market cap every year for 40 years. Markets are forward looking and just could not ignore that.
The only reason it's not priced in right now is because it's not expected to occur. And we're nowhere near nameplate. If you look at when value is unlocked during the development stage on the lassonde curve, it's unlocked periodically with nameplate (and therefore confirmation of a productive plant) creating a situation where the business is priced on forward multiples of cashflow.
We have a very long way to go, both in development and share price rise.
As for the 50%, we have substantial leverage ourselves. Sure we need the cash and it cannot go ahead without the cash....but the consortium also needs our resources and what competitors are there to us? Clarion clipperton zone?
This is a one in a million, tier 1 deposit. It's just been dormant because the macro has not been conducive towards development. The play we're all making right now hinges on the belief that the macro has turned in our favour.
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