@ashgood123 I respectfully disagree that Daybue is not the key...

@ashgood123 I respectfully disagree that Daybue is not the key driver of the share price, given that its what is currently making money for NEU.

Not here to pick arguments with anyone, this type of discussion is good - I like it. People should be able to have differing opinions that are within reason and not clearly trying to downramp or upramp.

Yes the market did react strongly to the first 2591 trial, and momentum carried it to $25. Traders got into the stock and made money, not only people who were buying solely for the fundamentals. Since then the price has come down but what would've driven the share price coming down? I believe it was due to Daybue sales not being as high as what the market would of been expecting or wanting. There hasn't been any other material news since then besides sales updates, so obviously it was due to the Daybue revenues? I don't consider announcements confirming enrolment complete in trials to be material although flagged as such. And yes that Culper report definitely affected the SP although the conclusions they came to were ludicrous, but that just shows how sensitive the market is to even absurd claims. If the market was rational and had any wits about it, it would've dismissed the claims, but just the claim of doubt hurt the SP. This feeds into my previous point that the market reacts more strongly to bad news than equivalent good news.

Do I want a similar result in terms of share price appreciation after this Phase 2 and again in July? Of course, but I' m not expecting it. 100% I could be wrong and would be happy to be proven wrong. I expect the market to react strongly again, but whether it can hold the gains would be whats up in the air. A lot of the gains after the Phase 2 update from December have been wiped out - i think prior to the news it was around $16? Now its $20, which yes is still a decent appreciation. There should be a cumulative increase in the value of 2591 as each subsequent Phase 2 is read out as the absolute number of patients treated increases, but those gains will be very susceptible to being minimized if the Daybue sales do not meet expectations (moreso exceed expectations as we have all seen what happens to the share price when Acadia missed the guidance by a whisker).

I think the $20-$25 price range is the fair value of Daybue in the USA alone, so right now 2591 almost represents a free option on the stock if you bought it now. But whether that option is in the money won't be decided for years until it completes a randomized and controlled trial.

To be honest, I WANT to be wrong, I want to see the share price go up sharply and stay there above $25 and edging towards $30 over the next few months, but I am very weary of one or two poor quarters from Acadia wiping out majority of the appreciation due to 2591.