CCX 3.85% 12.5¢ city chic collective limited

Buying a retailer without good management is like buying the...

  1. 804 Posts.
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    Buying a retailer without good management is like buying the Eiffel Tower without a lift.

    I haven't followed this company very closely and am just catching up with their current circumstances so have no real view on the managements performance.
    I did some consulting work for a clothing manufacturer a long time back and my understanding of the way this world works may help a little.
    Retail fashion income is roughly divided into two seasons, Summer and Winter.
    If we looked at the summer season, it begins for the retailer in about May when the buyers (Chic) review the styles available for the coming summer and select those that they consider appropriate (so we're six months out from the real start of summer selling).
    They then have to "size" their orders, "colour" them and establish their required delivery dates,
    Stock needs to be progressively delivered through the season as there isn't always room for the 6 months of summers sales stock in the outlet at once (albeit that it's probably being passed through a distribution centre).
    The higher fashion items are delivered later in the season to make cheap copies harder to produce before the season is finished.

    All of these decisions (style, sizes, colours and delivery dates) need to give due consideration to the economic cycle although, irrespective of the state of the economy, the store has to be "filled" as empty spaces in a retail outlet is a bad look.
    They ultimately have to rely on their order selection being supportive of customer needs, that deliveries are received on time and that the season comes early enough to sell out before Xmas.
    In the case of summer, customers tend to get excited when the weather warms up and the barbecues start. If the "barbecue" season starts too late and sales are down prior to Xmas, January clearance sales can represent a much larger proportion of sales than is desired. Clearnce sales have to start in January as stock needs to be monetized to free up cash for winter deliveries that start in February complemented by the fact that space for the early winter deliveries is needed.

    All of the above is, quite probably, a little boring but my point is that it's very difficult to have a successful selling season (my examples were summer but the same applies to winter which is where the bulk of the revenue is earned given that winter stock tends to be more expensive than the lighter summer stuff).
    If they get all the ducks in a row, results can be quite outstanding with margins above 40% and that's often achieved.
    If too many of the ducks are out of line, you can have problems when stock has to be cleared with margins well south of 25%.

    The degree of difficulty in achieving success in retail fashion over a long period of time is high and lends itself to wild variations.
    This makes it non-investable in my opinion which is why I have only scant understanding of their current situation.
 
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