Hi @ChockdeeSo you are saying we can raise more equity and not...

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27/07/24

15:29

Post #: 74944484
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Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

That's interesting SD - blimey AI - robotics - tech etc really is fascinating - shame I am ignorant to most of it haha. Sorry moneymaker my back of envelope approach in life has great limitations with tech however someone else could throw something together with some various scenarios - nudge nudge um forgot their name - the person whom has previously done great work with their forecasting and very clever explanations.

The key takeaway is FLEXIBILITY and the fact many would have totally missed the importance of such. Many would have thought - OH fantastic we now have around USD 1 billion locked in for debt component - we only need USD250 million in equity or whatever. This is certainly not what management want and have long advised - a 50/50 debt - equity mix that they will now push forward with at speed - and we could rightly anticipate a possible 30% or even more is already locked in with the likes of Gina - the other Insto (whom will hold their levels of holding perhaps even increase - retail participation and other advanced off take equity participants - other insto/super funds).

Just one example - If we reached say USD500 million - If Gina maintains her 10% holding - her additional contribution would be USD50 million. Given her large spending across RE companies - increasing Lynas holding (along with Aus Super for that matter) one would consider Gina - who may well be sitting on some outstanding low average accumulated shares - would certainly participate - and look I know majority do not like it but I say it again - without Insto participation with the likes of HP - ARU were/are going nowhere - aside from their own critical experience - knowledge - connections as far as China - US and beyond etc they are in every key pocket and knew 100% Aus Gov support was to arrive that would drive Nolan's to development way back in Dec 2022 when she tipped in a substantial amount of money for her 10% holding (which in my view has grown considerably under other entities however of course no evidence to back up my assumption).

Anyway for me Nolan's will get the FID - only question is when? and how much equity can they raise to retire or remove from the debt component to bring the financing in line with the advised 50/50 split.

Monadelphous continue doing what they do adding many new contracts regularly - expect to see ARU - Nolan's confirmed and added to their list by EOY or early 2025.

Have a great weekend all - keep safe.

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Hi @Chockdee

So you are saying we can raise more equity and not use as much debt.
- I have never heard of this approach when trying to finance a project.
- By having more equity we are diluting ourselves, whereas with more debt we have less dilution. More debt just increases our repayment costs...and once commisioned...we could refinance maybe?

I'm super confused with all these announcements. And the numbers are just no adding up......Some piece of information is missing.

ARU Price at posting: 17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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