What we know is the trading halt is in relation to:
“....pending the release of an announcement regarding a strategic investment in Minbos.”
Previously on the July 10 update and the July 31 Quarterly we were advised:
“The Company has engaged with the Angolan Sovereign Fund (“FSDEA”
on an equity injection for US$10-15 million....” and
“In parallel, the Company is engaging with an emerging market fund as an alternative or co-investor”
Fairly black and white what the upcoming announcement will be about, as I previously posted you don’t go into a trading halt if you’re not confident of the outcome
Lets for a moment assume the Angolan Sovereign Fund does invest US$10-15m in Minbos.
Remember this is basically the Angolan Government investing in Minbos.
So what do you think the chances are of BAI rejecting the loan application hence putting the Govt’s investment under pressure?
or
Carrinho not coming to the party and again putting the Government’s investment under pressure?
Minbos only needs the current Carrinho MOU turned into a firm contract, that MOU had a pricing tied to RAE compared to TSP, and a 7 year offtake tonnage of 869k tonnes with very small tonnage in year 1 & 2 (10kt & 92kt). Of course the Carrinho offtake only represents the smaller subsistence farmers, we also have the larger farms, Biocom & SARIS mentioned specifically by Minbos as well as all the other Angolan commercial farms who under Presidential decree have to buy locally & we’ll be the only local supplier. Then we have the Foskor export opportunity.
I previously expected the Carrinho offtake to lead to the other CPs being ticked off, looks like we’ll get the equity investment first and as I’ve said above, IMO that virtually guarantees the other 2 CPs.
