Ann: Trading Halt, page-10

The range of possible outcomes is so extreme that I can't see how anyone can definitively predict between scenarios of cautious optimism on one hand and disaster on the other.

Given the government has indicated they're using pre-COVID 2019 numbers to allocate quotas, at face value this might be a big risk to IKN's international intake which has recently been their star performer. To their credit IKN have a significant number of domestic students but if IKN's international NSEs quota is ratio'd back to 2019 then at face value that's a big impact.

ALG on the other hand has been struggling to get back to pre-COVID profitability but relies almost entirely on the international cohort.

I can envision a scenario where the objectives of the government's policy are implemented in consideration of the value provided by each institution such that the quotas are managed by EDU with relatively modest impact.

Unfortunately there's also a significant possibility that coarse application of the quotas will effectively eliminate ALG's reason for existing altogether and restrict IKN's intake sufficiently to remove EDU's viability in its entirety.

I would like to think that common sense will prevail and the objectives of the policy will be achieved without destruction of a bunch of valuable institutions and consequent impact to students and Australia's international reputation. Given EDU's strong numbers this year and the numbers of students potentially impacted I'd be shocked if they're not in a position to make a strong case for decent forward quotas. It's possible that the government allocates a starting point quota which is subsequently negotiated.

Based on what's known I believe there's still a decent chance for a reasonable outcome but it could also end up in a complete mess in which EDU is ultimately unable to continue as a going concern.

Until we know the proposed quotas for both IKN and ALG and how they'll be applied we're all pretty much guessing.