Spot on
@alexei ii, very much aligns with some of the numbers I've been running as a "back of the envelope" exercise. My previous post alluded to what I thought possible for STX, that is in a few years time having over 1,000PJ of 2P/2C reserves. My breakdown is this (all 100% to STX):
- WE: 211 2P + 15 2C
- SE: 45 2P + 37 2C
- Walyering: 56 2P + 33 2C
- ED: 139 2U
- SW: 136 2U
- OH: 306 2C
That's 978PJ right there of which 397PJ is 2P/2C.
And I agree, with the potential for the GWC waterline contour to be lower per NSAI, that has the potential to add an additional 75 - 125PJ.
and... lets not forget the condensate at Walyering, up to 900 bbl/d on the recent test... that could be an additional $50m in rev alone and... still I believe there is potential for more light oil / condensate to be discovered, particularly in the NE ED region, esp. given MIN recently flowed 1,100 b/day from their well not far north of ED-1.
So all up there is a reasonable S.O.P. reserves case to exceed 1,000PJ... but yes, ofc it will take time to further appraise Walyering, OH and the further reaches east & west of the Greater Erregulla field. Actually not to dissimilar to what you & I (and others here I am sure) experienced at NWE... when MIN made the move after the cracking LD-1 success. Then LD-2 was water wet and holders capitulated out of fear. In the end, 2 years later, we now know MIN has drilled 6 holes into the Lockyer / NE fields... 4 significant gas discoveries and 1 very significant oil discovery... and 1 duster... which just so happened to be that duster when the TO was in play. How convenient hey.
So IMO any predator out there will want that upside from STX that MIN got with NWE. They will want the 397PJ that STX has now in the bank but will want the upside of another potential 600+PJ... and all at a bargain price of cents in the dollar... that's how the game is played right.
Yesterday in MIN's FY preso CE was proud to say they found a lot of gas, in fact he believes they have the most gas in the PB. Word is MIN has ~550PJ 2P in the Lockyer fields, more than BPT's 465PJ and more than West Erregulla (at this point in time). It was interesting commentary from him that he believes he will get the 5 yr export opportunity... to ensure FID for a $850m gas plant. After 5 yrs he is keen to move into downstreaming such as Urea, Methanol and power generation... sounds like STX's strategy right? Thing is I don't believe 550PJ is enough reserves to export for 5 yrs then move into such intensive downstream ops... do they need more gas? Does Waitsia need more gas... general consensus is yes...
But IMO I don't think MIN will have a go at STX (not forgetting STX's ABN was on MIN's bidder statement for NWE lol), too much on their plate ATM, B/S quite stretched, certainly no cash to do it and with scrip so low, he is not keen on dilution. Although CE said he has plenty of companies keen to provide capital to build the gas plant he mentioned MIN is opportunistic and may lock down a LT "mining services" agreement (for gas) and not necessarily own the product beyond that (i.e. own the gas). Very interesting comment... What does that mean?... my read is that he is indeed talking about selling gas to Mitsui for Waitsia processing (per the media rumours).. grab the cash and deleverage the BS take the pressure off. But who knows really, just spit balling, but has got me thinking. FWIW there is no provision for a gas plant in MIN's FY25 capex projections... so maybe he has no plans in that space afterall.
At the end of the day IMO it is important to understand what MIN's intentions are with it's energy ambitions as it will impact on STX one way or another. I still am of the opinion that Hancock is going to have a crack, perhaps in a JV with MIN... perhaps as a 3-way PB consolidation via the big boys & girls. Hoping SN and our BoD have brushed up on their chess skills, next week will be a real test me thinks... its all about to come to a head.
As for the TH with ED-1.... it certainly made my Friday... I'm sitting very comfortable with this one...
Have a good weekend all... and as some friends like to say... see you next Tuesday.
Cheers,
brobel
(20min delay)