I agree that nothing should be a total certainty until a well is flow tested, I'd also argue against comparing SE to WE. SE had one successful well from which they used the resistivity log data as offset reference data when they analysed SE2 and SE3 well data. The fact that all data pointed to gas (verified by NSAI) but flowed water is an abnormality/outlier likely caused by different GWC levels due to compartmentalisation.
WE, on the other hand, has had 5 successful well drilled and flow tested. So there will be plenty of good offset reference data to be used for evaluating ED1 data.
Going by LD2 and Trigg-1, it is obvious that while the PB is highly prolific in gas and good quality Kingia sandstone is consistent throughout the basin, there are some compartmentalisation risks with pockets that contains no gas even though they are on the same migration path and on trend with other discoveries. But those are in the minorities and the majority of wells have come up trumps.
So while I agree with the cautious approach, I'd also point out that taking the Macca approach of assuming all future PB upside is doomed (even those from a total different type of plays with Jurassic aged sandstones) due to the outlier set of results at SE2/3 is just counter-productive and useless analysis. Like I said at the time, if the O&G industry stops exploring a basin due to an unexpected duster, the world would have run out of world a long time ago because all the profilic basins as such North Sea, Gulf Of Mexico and offshore Africa certainly wouldn't have produced the billions of barrels.
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19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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