I'd expect a small bump up, maybe 0.5-1c, you would think the market will have a risk factor built into the settlement payments, maybe a 80-90% certainty, so a 5-10% increase in share price would not seem unreasonable to me, possibly a touch more if the market then considers the 3rd tranche more likely.
Remember there's US$55M outstanding of which we'll probably get around the same in AU (Annual Report states that distribution still to be agreed by parties, but I think it's reasonable to think we'll get 2/3rds) and our MC is AU$61M. In that scenario our other interests are only valued at $6M. So, I think there is room for the share price to move (IMO).
If payment is delayed then obviously, we're going to take a hit.
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